It’s that time of year again, child: time to learn that’s asses we ve

got ta kick. Renowned Chinese general and theorist Sun Tzu once stated, If you know the opponent and recognize yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. I m not exactly sure what he particularly would’ve claimed about the outcome of 162-plus fights, but I’d like to believe it would ve been a comparable belief.

Throughout the winter, we right here at OTM have tried- and will certainly continue to attempt- to maintain you great people in the loophole on that latter part of Tzu’s quote: knowing yourself, or in our case the Boston Red Sox. For the new group, though, we also such as to dive into the former fifty percent of those words of wisdom: knowing the adversary.

As we move more detailed and closer to Opening Day, let’s begin our sneak peek of American Organization opponents with a trip to Canada: the future 51st state, relying on who you ask.

What’s This Group &

rsquo; s Deal? Even with every one of the activity in-and-out of the division among the Red Sox and the Yankees; despite the proceeded young people activity- and continued disappointment in October- taking place in Birdland; and in spite of the * motions vaguely * everything going on with the Rays company presently in time, I think you can make the argument that the Toronto Blue Jays are the most interesting AL East team going into the 2025 season.Join Us sixmanrotation.com website

This is a club that had simply lately gone through the activities of their very own youth movement, one that started at the final thought of the Joey Bats/Josh Donaldson Era of the mid 2010’s. Guys like initial baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette rose up through the ranch system and came to be the faces of the group in that time. Acquisitions of professionals such as outfielder George Springer and beginning bottle Kevin Gausman were made in the early 2020’s in an attempt to push the Jays towards the front of the line

in the AL. In general, those efforts kinda worked- at the very least in the routine period. Toronto won 90-plus video games in both years adhering to the COVID-shortened period (they came in fourth area in the 2021 AL East race regardless of publishing 91 success) and additionally gotten approved for October baseball in 2023. Nothing bad took place to them in any one of those postseason video games, and everyone lived happily ever before after.

In spite of past successes and the truth that a bona fide All-Star and among one of the most prominent gamers in the game got on the lineup, 2025 marked a huge decline for the Torontonians. Their fatal flaws were revealed by their American associates, and the team took L after L after L after L last year. Yet I’m getting averted, enough about Drake and OVO.

Heaven Jays fell from 89 victories in 2023 to just 74 in 2025. That year-to-year decline was even worse than their fall from 89 success to 76 between 2016 and 2017, which you can indicate as the genesis of this entire rebuild job. It was heaven Jays’ worse single year slump considering that 2004, when they won simply 67 games contrasted to the 86 video games they won the year prior. Injuries (Bichette, outfielder Dalton Varsho, and reliever Jordan Romano were all put on the shelf at various times in 2025), bullpen woes (their cumulative bullpen period of 4.82 was the second-worst in the organization), and a whole lot of nothing on crime outside of Vladdy Jr.’s outstanding campaign( simply two various other Toronto hitters who played in greater than 90 games in 2015 had an OPS+ north of 100, and neither of them are with the team to begin 2025) doomed heaven Jays.

That leads us back to the questioned poised from the dive: what, exactly, is this group’

deal? I m resting right here writing this on Monday, February 17. It’s President s Day below in the States, yet in’Canada it s Vladdy Expansion Target date Day (I’m uncertain if Canadians get sweat off for that). All Blue Jays gamers need to report to Springtime Training by Tuesday, and Guerrero- that’s about to go into the final year of his agreement with Toronto- has actually made it clear that he won’t be negotiating an expansion as soon as he gets the training program in Dunedin underway. Bichette can also walk once 2025 remains in guides. Heaven Jays have some luring children who could make waves this season, yet they additionally have maturing veterans whose efficiency moving forward is suspicious.

Simply put: this team’s deal is that they re at a crossroads.

Franchise business cornerstones could be passed the time we write the 2026 edition of this post, however those keystones might rebound (or, in Guerrero’s case, proceed their hot streak) in the brand-new year. Could they get right back into the mix in the uber-competitive AL East? Are they staring down the possibility of, to loosely price estimate Bono, dreaming it all up once more?

How Good Are They?

I can’t say’without a doubt, which s what makes them remarkable. I lean a lot more in the direction of not really, all that great but there could be a great deal of variance below.

Vladdy’s absolutely excellent, allow s simply get that out of the way first. He wrecked 30 homers and had 199 hits en route to uploading a. 323/.396/.544 line in 2025. Just about whatever you’d like to see under the hood was elite: hard struck rate, barrel price, strikeout price, xwOBA, you name it. He’s rather efficient striking spherical items with a club.

The rest of the violation’s high quality leaves … let s call it area for analysis, to be charitable. Bichette was essentially a job.300 player (it was.299, I’ll assemble)prior to his 2025 season was derailed by injuries. I assume he’ll requirement to get better if this team has any goals of playing baseball deep right into the loss.

Springer has actually traditionally been an extremely solid hitter on top of the schedule, however his OPS (.907,.814,.732,.674) and OPS+ (141, 132, 102, 92) have actually both fallen in every year considering that signing with Toronto in very early 2021, with his top quality of contact metrics signaling a comparable drop-off. Entering his age-35 period, can he transform it around?

Switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander gets in the layer this year after he authorized a five-year, $92.5 million contract with Toronto this wintertime. His 44 homers last year were impressive, and while that output could not be sustainable, he makes the lineup just a little bit deeper. The team could actually use that, especially if they’re going likewise to rely on the similarity young Will Wagner (the kid of soon-to-be-HOFer Billy Wagner, proceeding Toronto’s practice of acquiring the children of ex-MLB gamers) and catcher Alejandro Kirk (who’s stopped working to hit 100 OPS+ in the past two seasons considering that his 2022 season where he logged a 127 OPS+ en route to an All-Star selection). FanGraphs is projecting those last two individuals to sign up wRC+ marks north of 110, to make sure that’s something to be confident regarding if you’re a Blue Jays fan. I wouldn t expect the very same from the newly-acquired infielder Andres Gimenez, however he does offer a really consistent glove on protection.

Kevin Gausman projects to be atop the turning once more in 2025. While his 3.83 ERA in 2015 certainly wasn’t negative in itself, it was his worst considering that 2019. He started out fewer batters on a rate basis in 2025 contrasted to year’s past, his tough hit rate has ticked up in the last set of periods, and his anticipated period in 2025 (4.71) was virtually a complete run greater than his real ERA. Perhaps he’s a man who can endure and out-perform his anticipated numbers- I believe he does have that potential, given his track record and provided the fact that his 21.4% K-rate appears to be an outlier as much as this point. If he misses more bats and strikes extra guys out, he should be fine, even if he does give up some loud contact on occasion. He’s as great a wager as anybody to provide significant volume on the mound, as well.

Jose Berrios continues to be one of the weirdest pitchers in MLB. Because 2019, he hasn’t had actually an expected period better than 4.06, and yet his actual ERA in that time has actually only gone north of an also 4.00 as soon as. His 3.60 age in 2015 compared to his 4.74 anticipated ERA is once again evidence that this game makes no sense. He doesn’t strike out enough people and he’s quit a damn near 50% difficult hit price in 2 of his last three seasons. I have no idea just how he remains to stroll this limited rope, which is exactly why he’s most likely going to be great in 2025.

Chris Bassitt goes back to the turning and is additionally signed up with by future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, creating the Unction part of the pitching team.

Bassitt can do a great job of consuming innings, yet similar to Berrios, those quality of contact numbers are not urging. Scherzer’s got some question marks entering his 1 year deal with the group (especially: can he remain healthy and balanced and can he restrict several of the tough get in touch with himself?), yet at the very least he’s still creating some swing-and-miss stuff. Bassitt’s normally impressive walk rate jumped up to 9.2% in 2025, while his 40.9% ground ball rate was the most affordable of his occupation. If he can keep the strolls in check, maybe Bassitt can recuperate.

28-year-old Bowden Francis is the wild card in the turning. In his 140.2 innings joined in the bigs, Francis has a sub-1.00 WHIP thanks in big component to the truth that he rarely issues free passes; his 5.4% stroll rate was in the 89th percentile last season. He already does a great job of restricting difficult get in touch with, and he can actually raise this rotation if he is able to efficiently deploy that curveball of his; the run worth of his curve fell from 5 in 2023 to -8 in 2025. If he can generate some even more activity on that breaking pitch, he’d unexpectedly have 3 solid offerings in between that, his heater, and his splitter.

Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia have actually been brought in (or revived, in Yimi’s instance)to boost the relief pitching. As stated previously, Toronto is gon na require em. Hoffman has been superb in the past two years while Garcia obtained the WHIP listed below 1.00 in 2025, but is that enough to enhance the backside of the pitching team?

A Lot Of Pleasant Player: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Easy telephone call right here. It s so remarkable that a brand-new generation of followers gets to enjoy a right-handed hitting titan named Vladdy. As a baseball fan in general, he’s a blast to enjoy. That doesn’t like to view an absolute mountain of a guy hit taters? Least Likable Gamer: Likewise Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

To answer the concern that I just poised: me, I don’t like to watch an outright mountain of a guy struck taters if it’s against the Red Sox. Vladdy Jr. has actually been recognized to do that, sadly. In his 87 profession video games against Boston, he’s slashing.294/.370/.522 with 17 homers and 75 RBI. Maybe Craig Breslow offers him an agreement next weekend so he doesn’t obtain the opportunity to slug against the Red Sox?

Schedule Against the Red Sox

Boston gamers will need to have their keys prepared for a very early season set in Toronto running from April 29 via May 1. The Sox head back to the Rogers Centre from September 23 through 25 for the second-to-last series of the period. Meanwhile, heaven Jays pay check outs to Fenway Park between April 7 and 10 as well as from June 27 through 29. It remains to be seen if any of those video games will certainly be delayed as a result of lighting and resumed weeks later.

Period Forecast

2025 marks a critical year for the Toronto Blue Jays- a period that could determine the company’s instructions for many years to come. Can they perform at a high level? Sure, I’d state it s definitely within the world of possible results. However if that’s mosting likely to take place, they need a whole lot to go right. Vladdy’s got ta continue his warm touch throughout his contract year. Bichette needs to recover in a contract year of his own. Other parts of the lineup have to step up. The turning requires to collectively out-perform their consistently-iffy peripherals. The bullpen, outside of their brand-new purchases, needs to tighten up.

It’s feasible that it collaborates for&them- baseball s a weird sport- however what are the probabilities of that happening? Not so fat, I’d state. Mix that together with the truth that the AL East can once again be much more like the AL Beast in 2025, and I don’t see an apparent path to 270 for Toronto (wrong nation’s electoral system, I understand).

I wouldn’t claim the Blue Jays are a poor group- I just wear’t think 2025 is their year. Someone’s got ta coating last in the division; I assume it’s going to be them.

Know Thy Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays